Analyzing Investments in NC Offshore Renewable Energy Under Uncertain Resource Availability and Hurricane Damages

Rapid technological innovation and the threat of climate change are leading to disruptive transformations in the US electricity system. Renewable energy generation in the country has increased by more than 50% between 2009 and 2019. While land-based solar and wind are responsible for the vast majority of this growth, opportunities exist to deploy offshore renewable energy, including offshore wind, wave energy, and ocean current energy. North Carolina is an ideal location to foster the development of marine-based renewable energy, which can contribute to clean electricity supply within the state and also foster economic development in a nascent industry. Our proposed work involves two complementary tasks, first we will develop a stochastic optimization model to perform site selection for offshore renewable technologies, taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with resource availability and storage costs. Second, we will evaluate our optimal offshore portfolios in a capacity expansion model of the NC system, where we will integrate the risk of economic damage from hurricanes in the model formulation. By selecting optimal offshore site locations though a stochastic optimization model, we can incorporate more robust mechanisms to safeguard investors against large economic losses, and also improve our understanding of how resource variability influences the selection of optimal generation sites. Furthermore, assessing the very real threat of hurricanes in North Carolina – stemming from high wind speeds and large wave heights – to offshore energy infrastructure should be a critical investment consideration.

DeCarolis, J.F. (PI), de Queiroz, A.R. (co-PI), Analyzing Investments in NC Offshore Renewable Energy Under Uncertain Resource Availability and Hurricane Damages, Funded by the UNC Coastal Studies Institute, Renewable Ocean Energy for North Carolina Program, 2020-2021

Analysis Framework - Analyzing Investments in NC Offshore Renewable Energy Under Uncertain Resource Availability and Hurricane Damages